League HistoryLeagueHistory

Luck vs skill

Fantasy Football Schedule Luck

Fantasy football is head-to-head, so opponent timing matters. League History estimates expected wins and schedule luck by comparing actual records against randomized schedules and league scoring context.

Expected wins

Estimate how many wins a manager should have earned from weekly scores independent of the actual schedule.

Strength of schedule

Measure whether managers faced harder or easier opponents than the league baseline.

Score sensitivity

Identify teams whose records changed most because of close matchups and small scoring swings.

Questions This Page Answers

Who was the luckiest fantasy football manager?
Who had the hardest schedule?
Who should have made the playoffs?
Which team was better than its record?