League guide
Fantasy Football Schedule Luck
The Luck section separates performance from opponent timing. It asks what a manager's record would look like against different schedules, different opponents, and different scoring thresholds.
What This Page Covers
Schedule-swap simulations
Shuffle schedules while preserving weekly scores to estimate expected wins and luck-adjusted records.
Strength of schedule
Measure whether a manager faced an unusually hard or easy slate of opponent scores.
Score sensitivity
Show how many matchup outcomes would change with small scoring changes, close-game swings, and alternate head-to-head pairings.
Key Metrics
- Expected Wins
- How many wins a manager would expect from their weekly scores under randomized schedules.
- Schedule Luck
- Actual wins minus expected wins, showing who benefited or suffered from opponent timing.
- Strength of Schedule
- How difficult a manager's opponents were compared with the league baseline.
Questions This Answers
- Who was the luckiest manager this season?
- Which team had the hardest schedule?
- Who would have made the playoffs with an average schedule?
- Which managers were one close result away from a different seed?